How to Handicap College and Pro Football

For the purpose of this article pro football odds are used but the method provided may be applied to most sports.The foundation of any sports handicapping program is the ability to create unbiased pointspreads. The following includes two methods for creating an unbiased pointspread as wells as a list of key factors to consider when handicapping college and pro football.Use the following formula to create a pointspread:(((Home Team AMV - Away Team AMV) /2) 3) *-1 = Pointspread.1. Calculate every teams Average Margin of Victory (AMV).The AMV = (Points Scored - Points Scored Against) /Games Played. The AMV needs to be recalculated after every game a team plays.2. Subtract the Away Team AMV from the Home Team AMV.3. Divide the result from step #2 in half.The reason we divide the result from the 2nd step by 2 is explained by the following: Assume two teams played a significant number of games versus each other on a neutral field (no home field advantage). If Team A wins on average by 3.0 points then Team A's AMV would be 3.0 and Team B's AMV would be -3.0. If we calculated the pointspread for the next neutral field game between Team A and Team B (Home AMV - Away AMV), Team A would be favored by -6.0 points. Common sense tells us it should be -3.0.3. Add 3.0 points for home field advantage.4. Multiply the result by (-1) to show the Favorite as a negative number.A negative pointspread indicates a Home Favorite and a positive pointspread indicates a Home Underdog.Example: Indianapolis has scored 106 points and given up 29 points during their last 5 games and is the Home Team. Cincinnati has scored 124 points and given up 61 points during their last 5 games.Indianapolis AMV = (106 - 29) /5 = 15.4Cincinnati AMV = (124 - 61) /5 = 12.6(((Indianapolis AMV - Cincinnati AMV) /2) 3) *-1 = Pointspread(((15.4 - 12.6) /2) 3) *-1 = -4.4Indianapolis is approximately a -4.5 point Home Favorite.An alternate method of creating a pointspread is to use Average Yards per Game and Average Yards Against per Game instead of points scored and points scored against.Calculate AMV using Average Yards per Game:OffenseX = Average Yards per GameY = League Average Points per GameZ = League Average Yards per GameDefenseA = Average Yards Against per GameB = League Average Points Against per GameC = League Average Yards Against per GameAMV = (X*Y /Z) - (A*B /C)Complete steps 2 thru 4 above with the AMV calculated using yards.Whether you use the standard AMV or the AMV calculated using yards you need to take into account other relevant factors and adjust your pointspread accordingly. Some factors you might want to consider are strength of schedule, player mismatches, team strengths and weaknesses (Team A rushing offense versus Team B rushing defense), rivalries, injuries and turnover margin. The number of points you adjust your pointspread by is somewhat subjective but I would recommend limiting it to 1 point or less per category initially.If the pointspreads you have created are more than a touchdown off of the sportsbook's odds there is a good chance you have not taken into account some significant factor and your pointspread may be incorrect.

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